It just goes to show that nobody knows anything. Or to use the famous Murray-ism: 'anything can happen in Formula One, and it usually does'. And it all happened in the Chinese Grand Prix today.
The expected Vettel-benefit didn't happen in the end, and the race was won, brilliantly, by Lewis Hamilton. Having been a little under the radar for a lot of the way, he came alive in the latter twenty laps of the race. He put in a fantastic, aggressive move on Jenson Button into turn one, passed Rosberg, outmaneuvered Massa on the pit straight and then reeled in and passed Sebastian Vettel into turn seven with four laps left, thus taking a lead which he kept. It was another variable race with plenty of passing, like in Malaysia, but this time with the cars at the front running in closer company, creating a classic race. It's hard to remember a more diverting all-dry weather race in modern times, you may have to go back to the Japanese race in 2005.
The story of the race, strategy-wise, was that a three stop race (used by the McLarens, the Mercedes and Webber) worked much better than a two-stopper (employed by Vettel and the Ferraris). Indeed, in many ways the race was reminiscent of a wet (or wet-to-dry) race, in that being on the correct tyres, and thus being
seconds of a lap faster a lot of the time, was worth an extra stop. The two-stoppers were easy meat in the final laps of the race as the three-stoppers reeled them in. The days of drivers 'racing to the final pitstops' are very much behind us, and not before time. Hats off to Pirelli for creating such an entertaining formula - though F1 teams do have a tendency to converge on each other, so we should enjoy this level of variation while it lasts!